01
Learn from eight seasons
Every race since 2018 — results, grids, pace, weather, reliability — is turned into 39 engineered features per driver per weekend.
The opponent
The machine you're racing
Every Grand Prix you go head-to-head with a machine-learning model trained on eight seasons of Formula 1. It isn't a gimmick — it's a real forecasting pipeline, deliberately calibrated so the duel is winnable by good play, not luck.
What it thought of Hungarian Grand Prix
Ten thousand simulated races, reduced to one number per driver per position: how often they finished there. This is the matrix the whole game runs on — the model plays the top 10 that maximises its own expected score from it, and your rarity multiplier is read straight out of it.
Round 11 · pre-quali · Sun 26 Jul
| Driver | P1 | P2 | P3 | P4 | P5 | P6 | P7 | P8 | P9 | P10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANTAndrea Kimi Antonelli | 45Andrea Kimi Antonelli, P1, 45% | 19Andrea Kimi Antonelli, P2, 19% | 11Andrea Kimi Antonelli, P3, 11% | 7Andrea Kimi Antonelli, P4, 7% | Andrea Kimi Antonelli, P5, 3% | Andrea Kimi Antonelli, P6, 2% | Andrea Kimi Antonelli, P7, 2% | Andrea Kimi Antonelli, P8, 1% | Andrea Kimi Antonelli, P9, 1% | Andrea Kimi Antonelli, P10, 0% |
| HAMLewis Hamilton | 26Lewis Hamilton, P1, 26% | 30Lewis Hamilton, P2, 30% | 14Lewis Hamilton, P3, 14% | 7Lewis Hamilton, P4, 7% | Lewis Hamilton, P5, 4% | Lewis Hamilton, P6, 3% | Lewis Hamilton, P7, 2% | Lewis Hamilton, P8, 1% | Lewis Hamilton, P9, 2% | Lewis Hamilton, P10, 1% |
| RUSGeorge Russell | 11George Russell, P1, 11% | 19George Russell, P2, 19% | 20George Russell, P3, 20% | 12George Russell, P4, 12% | 9George Russell, P5, 9% | 6George Russell, P6, 6% | 5George Russell, P7, 5% | George Russell, P8, 3% | George Russell, P9, 2% | George Russell, P10, 2% |
| LECCharles Leclerc | 5Charles Leclerc, P1, 5% | 12Charles Leclerc, P2, 12% | 18Charles Leclerc, P3, 18% | 21Charles Leclerc, P4, 21% | 12Charles Leclerc, P5, 12% | 7Charles Leclerc, P6, 7% | 6Charles Leclerc, P7, 6% | Charles Leclerc, P8, 3% | Charles Leclerc, P9, 2% | Charles Leclerc, P10, 2% |
| PIAOscar Piastri | Oscar Piastri, P1, 2% | 7Oscar Piastri, P2, 7% | 10Oscar Piastri, P3, 10% | 17Oscar Piastri, P4, 17% | 16Oscar Piastri, P5, 16% | 11Oscar Piastri, P6, 11% | 6Oscar Piastri, P7, 6% | 7Oscar Piastri, P8, 7% | Oscar Piastri, P9, 3% | Oscar Piastri, P10, 2% |
| NORLando Norris | Lando Norris, P1, 3% | Lando Norris, P2, 4% | 7Lando Norris, P3, 7% | 8Lando Norris, P4, 8% | 14Lando Norris, P5, 14% | 19Lando Norris, P6, 19% | 9Lando Norris, P7, 9% | 8Lando Norris, P8, 8% | 6Lando Norris, P9, 6% | Lando Norris, P10, 3% |
| VERMax Verstappen | Max Verstappen, P1, 1% | Max Verstappen, P2, 4% | 5Max Verstappen, P3, 5% | 5Max Verstappen, P4, 5% | 13Max Verstappen, P5, 13% | 15Max Verstappen, P6, 15% | 15Max Verstappen, P7, 15% | 8Max Verstappen, P8, 8% | 6Max Verstappen, P9, 6% | Max Verstappen, P10, 4% |
| GASPierre Gasly | Pierre Gasly, P1, 1% | Pierre Gasly, P2, 0% | Pierre Gasly, P3, 2% | 5Pierre Gasly, P4, 5% | 7Pierre Gasly, P5, 7% | 9Pierre Gasly, P6, 9% | 12Pierre Gasly, P7, 12% | 10Pierre Gasly, P8, 10% | 11Pierre Gasly, P9, 11% | 9Pierre Gasly, P10, 9% |
| LAWLiam Lawson | Liam Lawson, P1, 1% | Liam Lawson, P2, 1% | Liam Lawson, P3, 1% | Liam Lawson, P4, 1% | Liam Lawson, P5, 3% | Liam Lawson, P6, 4% | 8Liam Lawson, P7, 8% | 10Liam Lawson, P8, 10% | 15Liam Lawson, P9, 15% | 11Liam Lawson, P10, 11% |
| HADIsack Hadjar | Isack Hadjar, P1, 1% | Isack Hadjar, P2, 1% | Isack Hadjar, P3, 2% | 7Isack Hadjar, P4, 7% | 6Isack Hadjar, P5, 6% | 7Isack Hadjar, P6, 7% | 11Isack Hadjar, P7, 11% | 11Isack Hadjar, P8, 11% | 11Isack Hadjar, P9, 11% | 7Isack Hadjar, P10, 7% |
| BEAOliver Bearman | Oliver Bearman, P1, 0% | Oliver Bearman, P2, 1% | Oliver Bearman, P3, 1% | Oliver Bearman, P4, 2% | Oliver Bearman, P5, 3% | Oliver Bearman, P6, 4% | 7Oliver Bearman, P7, 7% | 8Oliver Bearman, P8, 8% | 7Oliver Bearman, P9, 7% | Oliver Bearman, P10, 5% |
| COLFranco Colapinto | Franco Colapinto, P1, 0% | Franco Colapinto, P2, 0% | Franco Colapinto, P3, 1% | Franco Colapinto, P4, 1% | Franco Colapinto, P5, 2% | Franco Colapinto, P6, 3% | Franco Colapinto, P7, 5% | 8Franco Colapinto, P8, 8% | 6Franco Colapinto, P9, 6% | 8Franco Colapinto, P10, 8% |
| LINArvid Lindblad | Arvid Lindblad, P1, 0% | Arvid Lindblad, P2, 0% | Arvid Lindblad, P3, 1% | Arvid Lindblad, P4, 0% | Arvid Lindblad, P5, 1% | Arvid Lindblad, P6, 4% | Arvid Lindblad, P7, 2% | 7Arvid Lindblad, P8, 7% | 8Arvid Lindblad, P9, 8% | 10Arvid Lindblad, P10, 10% |
| SAICarlos Sainz | Carlos Sainz, P1, 1% | Carlos Sainz, P2, 0% | Carlos Sainz, P3, 1% | Carlos Sainz, P4, 0% | Carlos Sainz, P5, 0% | Carlos Sainz, P6, 0% | Carlos Sainz, P7, 2% | Carlos Sainz, P8, 5% | Carlos Sainz, P9, 4% | 7Carlos Sainz, P10, 7% |
| ALBAlexander Albon | Alexander Albon, P1, 0% | Alexander Albon, P2, 1% | Alexander Albon, P3, 1% | Alexander Albon, P4, 1% | Alexander Albon, P5, 2% | Alexander Albon, P6, 1% | Alexander Albon, P7, 1% | Alexander Albon, P8, 2% | Alexander Albon, P9, 3% | 8Alexander Albon, P10, 8% |
| OCOEsteban Ocon | Esteban Ocon, P1, 0% | Esteban Ocon, P2, 0% | Esteban Ocon, P3, 0% | Esteban Ocon, P4, 1% | Esteban Ocon, P5, 1% | Esteban Ocon, P6, 1% | Esteban Ocon, P7, 1% | Esteban Ocon, P8, 2% | Esteban Ocon, P9, 3% | Esteban Ocon, P10, 5% |
| PERSergio Pérez | Sergio Pérez, P1, 0% | Sergio Pérez, P2, 0% | Sergio Pérez, P3, 2% | Sergio Pérez, P4, 1% | Sergio Pérez, P5, 2% | Sergio Pérez, P6, 0% | Sergio Pérez, P7, 1% | Sergio Pérez, P8, 2% | Sergio Pérez, P9, 2% | Sergio Pérez, P10, 3% |
| BOTValtteri Bottas | Valtteri Bottas, P1, 0% | Valtteri Bottas, P2, 0% | Valtteri Bottas, P3, 2% | Valtteri Bottas, P4, 1% | Valtteri Bottas, P5, 2% | Valtteri Bottas, P6, 0% | Valtteri Bottas, P7, 1% | Valtteri Bottas, P8, 2% | Valtteri Bottas, P9, 2% | Valtteri Bottas, P10, 3% |
| STRLance Stroll | Lance Stroll, P1, 0% | Lance Stroll, P2, 0% | Lance Stroll, P3, 2% | Lance Stroll, P4, 1% | Lance Stroll, P5, 2% | Lance Stroll, P6, 0% | Lance Stroll, P7, 1% | Lance Stroll, P8, 2% | Lance Stroll, P9, 2% | Lance Stroll, P10, 3% |
| HULNico Hülkenberg | Nico Hülkenberg, P1, 0% | Nico Hülkenberg, P2, 0% | Nico Hülkenberg, P3, 2% | Nico Hülkenberg, P4, 1% | Nico Hülkenberg, P5, 2% | Nico Hülkenberg, P6, 0% | Nico Hülkenberg, P7, 1% | Nico Hülkenberg, P8, 2% | Nico Hülkenberg, P9, 2% | Nico Hülkenberg, P10, 3% |
| BORGabriel Bortoleto | Gabriel Bortoleto, P1, 1% | Gabriel Bortoleto, P2, 0% | Gabriel Bortoleto, P3, 1% | Gabriel Bortoleto, P4, 0% | Gabriel Bortoleto, P5, 1% | Gabriel Bortoleto, P6, 1% | Gabriel Bortoleto, P7, 1% | Gabriel Bortoleto, P8, 2% | Gabriel Bortoleto, P9, 3% | Gabriel Bortoleto, P10, 2% |
| ALOFernando Alonso | Fernando Alonso, P1, 0% | Fernando Alonso, P2, 1% | Fernando Alonso, P3, 0% | Fernando Alonso, P4, 1% | Fernando Alonso, P5, 0% | Fernando Alonso, P6, 1% | Fernando Alonso, P7, 1% | Fernando Alonso, P8, 0% | Fernando Alonso, P9, 3% | Fernando Alonso, P10, 4% |
Model's confidence30%+×115–30%×1.55–15%×22–5%×3under 2%×3
Colour is how sure the model is. The multiplier runs the other way, so the pale cells are where the points are — a call the model rated under 5% pays triple.
How it predicts
02
Two models, one voice
An XGBoost and a LightGBM model each predict a performance score; they're blended by how well each did on held-out validation races.
03
Simulate the race 10,000 times
Scores plus race-day randomness are Monte-Carlo simulated to get, for every driver, the probability of finishing in each position.
04
Play a fair, calibrated hand
Those probabilities are blended with a historical grid prior, then the model plays the top 10 that maximises its own expected game score.
39 features, six angles
The model doesn't just look at the grid. Each driver's weekend is described from six directions:
Pace & form
recent finishing pace, qualifying gap, rolling results, teammate delta
Car & team
constructor strength, upgrades window, season trajectory
Reliability
DNF history, mechanical-failure rate, finish ratio
Circuit
track type, past results here, overtaking difficulty
Conditions
live weather, rain probability, temperature
Grid
starting position, front-row / points-row odds
Why it's a fair fight
It doesn't just copy the grid
In Formula 1, grid position is a very strong predictor of the finish. A raw model that always plays its most-likely order is easy to tie by copying the grid. So the model's entry is calibrated: its simulated probabilities are blended with a historical P(finish | grid) prior, and it plays the order that maximises its own expected points.
Boldness is your edge
Because the model plays its most likely order, it almost never earns the rarity multiplier. You beat it by finding the correct deviationfrom the favourites — the upset it didn't dare to call. That asymmetry, not raw accuracy, is the whole game.
After calibration, a grid-copying human went from 8–0–3 down to 3–5–3 against the model across 2026 — a genuine coin flip.
Think you can read a race better?
There's one duel every Grand Prix. Prove it.